His story, later confirmed by Osvaldo Espinoza Ortiz, was that they had been part of a plot involving two Mexican men who had been staying at the nearby Alan Hotel, and who were going to shoot Carter. Shooting the blanks was supposed to create a distraction for the real assassins.

When police checked the hotel they found an empty shotgun case and three rounds of live ammunition in a room rented by a Mexican man who had checked out on the day of Carter’s visit.

Although the authorities had what appears to be a confession backed up by some hard evidence at the hotel, charges were apparently dismissed on the basis of insufficient evidence. ‘Raymond Lee Harvey’ plus ‘Osvaldo Espinoza Ortiz’ equals ‘Lee Harvey Osvaldo’, which is close enough to send Carter a message. He appears to have received the message:

On July 3, 1979, he signed a directive authorizing secret aid to Islamic opponents of the government in Afghanistan. This eventually led to the war in Afghanistan in which Islamic insurgents from Saudi Arabia managed to defeat the Soviets. Bin Laden rose to prominence in this war, and the basis of al Qaeda was established.

On July 15, 1979, Carter gave his famous ‘malaise’ speech which was used by the Republicans to defeat him.

After months of resistance, on October 20, 1979 Carter gave in to much pressure (going back to April 1979), particularly from Kissinger, and allowed the Shah of Iran into the United States for medical treatment. Coupled with the inexplicable failure to evacuate the American embassy in Tehran, this decision led directly to the hostage crisis.